Olympic Ski Racing Preview
Ski Racing is the best part of the Winter Olympics. The athletes are like gods in Europe. So, in too many words, let's learn about what to expect.
The Olympics are notorious in ski racing for being important, but not as important as other races on the calendar, like as the Hahnenkamm.1 Winners often can be a surprise who either benefitted from luck or happened to have their one notable victory be the Olympics (see: Ryan Cochran-Siegle2). I’ll be giving my general3 outlook on the state of affairs of the event, and then some picks with a dark horse name to watch out for. I am ignoring the Team Combined events for variance, word count, and sanity reasons. The men compete in Bormio, and the women in Cortina. These courses are annual stops on the ski racing World Cup, so athletes are familiar with the snow and the course. Relevant when some people have crashed there before or won there.
Men’s Slalom
This event is wide open, with no clear favorite in my mind. The top 10 in the season standings all have a chance to win unless they take a gate to the balls. Slalom is the one event Marco Odermatt(SUI) does not compete in (and we’ll get to him), which makes this a bit more compelling than the other men’s events. Your favorite skier here should be the Caleb Williams/Lewis Hamilton of ski racing: Lucas Pinheiro Braathen(BRA).
Lucas Pinheiro Braathen paints his nails, is a force to be reckoned with, and loves fashion. If someone dislikes him, it’s because he has a personality. Its also notable that he competes under/for Brazil, due to Norway’s draconian NIL restrictions (his mother is Brazilian, and father Norwegian thus he switched what country he was competing for).4 Braathen is legit good, sitting at #2 for this season’s slalom overall standings, and is a good bet for at least a medal. Which, if he medals, we better get some sick footage from Brazil about this. He’s thrown down some dance moves after a win before, so let’s hope he has an opportunity to celebrate again.
Names to Watch:
Lucas Pinheiro Braathen(BRA), Timon Haugen(NOR), Atle Lie McGrath(NOR). Dark Horse Pick: Tanguy Nef(SUI)
Men’s Giant Slalom
If there is one name to know these Olympics its Marco Odermatt(SUI). He’s been the best skier for the last four seasons, and it hasn’t been close. He’s won the World Cup Overall title in the last four seasons, as well as the last two seasons won the overall titles for all three events he competes in: Giant Slalom (GS), Super G, and Downhill. “Odi” is a good shot for at least a podium here. BUT, our Golden Boy Braathen should give him plenty of competition, and again the variance of Olympic winners means nothing is guaranteed. Generally, skiers focus on and compete in the “technical events”, Giants Slalom and Slalom or the “speed events”, Downhill and Super-G. Meaning names that place well in slalom are ones to pay special attention to in GS.
Names to Watch:
Lucas Pinheiro Braathen(BRA), Marco Odermatt(SUI), Loic Meillard(SUI), Atle Lie McGrath(NOR), Timon Haugen(NOR). Dark Horse Pick: Thomas Tummler(SUI)
I’ve left off one notable name here which is Henrik Kristofferson(NOR), but I am a hater, and I don’t think he can get it done. He’s got Red Bull money to wipe away any tears.
Men’s Super G
Now for the good events: the speed events (aka Super-G, and Downhill). It’s probably Marco Odermatt here again. Super-G does have higher variance on the World Cup, and is often where a dark horse or unexpected name can spring a surprise and win or podium. Despite the higher variance in Super-G, I’d look to any Swiss Skier as having a higher chance at getting a medal or winning. The rise of the Swiss has been a few years coming, especially so when they changed the head of their ski federation. Even beyond Marco Odermatt, Switzerland has been a dominant nation in the Men’s speed events with guys like Franjo Von Allmen and Alexis Monney to name two. If a Swiss is on course, keep an eye on the green light.
Names to Watch:
Marco Odermatt(SUI), Marco Schwarz(AUS)5, Franja Von Allmen(SUI), Dominik Paris (ITA), Giovanni Franzoni (ITA). Dark Horse Picks: any Italian otherwise too many names.
Men’s Downhill
The Downhill. The best event. TV flattens out the courses, and slows things down, so you cannot comprehend these people are making precise turns on 50° and steeper slopes, flying off jumps, and going 90+ MPH. This means we get the best characters of the sport like Italian Dominik Paris. Paris moved to the Swiss Alps at 18 because he was partying too much, sings in a metal band, as well as hits the fastest speeds during the season (he was cruising at 93MPH a couple weeks ago). He is someone who is going to be taking lots of risks (and is great at it), has won in Bormio, and happens to be from the host nation. He’s worth your time to watch.
Following Paris will be another flying Italian, Giovanni Franzoni. A pop-up winner this year, he’s shown he can take the risks necessary to win. He won this year’s “Super Bowl of Skiing” the Hahnenkamm, aka Kitzbuehel. If you’ve seen Arnold Schwarzenegger on TV at a ski race, this is where it was. It’s as special as only 100,000 drunken partiers cheering as people come millimeters from career-ending injuries, can make it. With Italy hosting, Franzoni will be among the Italians putting it all on the line for a win on home soil.
Fine, yes, Ryan Cochran-Siegle (USA) won in Bormio in the 2020-2021 season. Buckle up to get THAT fact rammed down your throat. I hope he kept his skis that got him the win then.6
Names to Watch:
Marco Odermatt(SUI), Franjo Von Allmen(SUI), Dominik Paris(ITA), Giovanni Franzoni(ITA), anyone who does well in Super G. Dark Horse Picks: any Italian skier
P.S. DO NOT buy into the state propaganda. The USA Men’s ski team is a fucking joke. If anyone medals, that is a verified upset. Immediately question how much luck is involved. While the guys on the team have had some reasonable performances, do not expect them to achieve anything more than a respectable top 10 finish. Pretty much the opposite of the women’s team, just like in soccer.
Women’s Slalom
You, the reader, can probably name two ski racers: Lindsey Vonn and Mikaela Shiffrin. Where Lindsey races speed, Mikaela excels in the slalom. Shiffrin has won 7 out of 8 slalom races this year, and a casual 2nd in the one she didn’t win. Mikaela can do it, and she’s won two gold medals which seems to be forgotten about. There are other skiers in this event, but the broadcast will focus on Shiffrin like Japanese TV on Shohei Ohtani. When you’re the winningest ski racer in history its warranted.7 Just like in all the men’s events, expect any Italian in any event to go flat out to get a win.
Names to Watch:
Mikaela Shiffrin (USA), Paula Moltzan (USA), Lara Colturi(ALB)8, Wendy Holdener (SUI), Camille Rast (SUI). Dark Horse Pick: Zrinka Ljutic (CRO).
Women’s Giant Slalom
Women’s Giant Slalom (GS) has flown under the radar for me this season. Some random Austrian named Julia Scheib has been crushing it in Giant Slalom, followed close behind by Switzerland’s star, Camille Rast.
The intrigue for GS is in Sara Hector’s (SWE) speed, and Mikaela’s performance. Considering the man-made snow disaster of Beijing, it’s reasonable to expect Cortina to go better for Mika, and a podium is within reach. It’s also just over a year out from Shiffrin’s gnarly puncture wound injury in the GS event at Killington. For Sara Hector, they are a consistent performer on the World Cup, and won the gold medal for GS in 2022, ignore them at your own peril. Paula Moltzan is the other American you’ll be seeing and hearing a lot about for the tech events. Moltzan has been building a respectable resume of top 10 finishes, and podiums which speak to legit skiing.
Names to Watch:
Julia Scheib(AUS), Mikaela Shiffrin (USA), Camille Rast (SUI), Alice Robinson (NZ). Dark Horse Pick: ???
Women’s Super G
Lots of words down, and yet no Lindsey Vonn mention. Pre Crans-Montana crash she was looking like one of the safest bets to podium or win in Super-G and Downhill. Now? Who knows, but hopefully she’s there racing. Her comeback is for real even if she isn’t at full speed for Cortina. A healthy Lindsey Vonn could win both Super-G and Downhill.
Beyond Vonn, it reeks of high variance. Cortina is infamous for how many people crash out leading to less top contenders. Women’s Super-G also led to Esther Ledecka in 2018 shocking the world with a huge upset victory, so it wouldn’t be the first time something like that’s occurred. Federica Brignone (ITA) is who you’d look to, but the Olympics will be their first race back from injury a year ago. We’re looking at some “Crash or Podium” type of runs here.
Names to Watch:
Sofia Goggia (ITA), Lindsey Vonn (USA), Malorie Blanc (SUI). Dark Horse Pick: Cornelia Huetter (AUS)
Women’s Downhill
It’s time for Sofia Goggia. She’s the quintessential balls-to-the-wall flat out downhill racer, where it isn’t the prettiest, but the fastest. I’ve had Sources tell me she’s great at not thinking, is extremely Italian (think pinching fingers in interviews), and is genuinely nice. They’re who I am rooting for, and its easy to see why.
If conditions are tough, things will be fast, bumpy, and expect lots of delays. American Jacqueline Wiles should be in consideration for a medal. They’ve shown they can handle the crash-friendly course that is Cortina. The other top names include Emma Aicher (GER), and from there take your pick of any other Italian skier like Nicol Delago.
Names to Watch:
Sofia Goggia (ITA), Lindsey Vonn (USA), Jacqueline Wiles (USA). Dark Horse Pick: Breezy Johnson (USA).
If you think you’re in deep water now, just wait. - Ed.
In 12 World Cup Seasons, Ryan has 1 win and 4 podiums, then one Olympic silver medal from Beijing. That’s it.
Biased
Its best summed up this way. My understanding is that Team Norway owns its athletes image rights or they receive the earnings from these, so Lucas couldn’t/didn’t do photo shoots he wanted to. Its probably not the last time this will come up for Norway but insane they threw a fit when a skier was famous enough to have their own ad campaigns. Reminder, ski racing is legit popular/known in Europe.
This is a biased pick, but he’s performed well at Bormio before, is gaining form again, and actually has won before.
Different sets of skis of the exact same make and model often perform differently. This can lead to advantages at certain courses, so skiers who have had good results or won at a place have been known to keep those skis on hand just for the race there in future years.
Seriously. Mikaela has over 20 wins more than 2nd place in the all times win list, and the next closest active skier is Lindsey Vonn. 108 wins and counting is a lot.
Is Italian, and skis for Albania. I don’t know, don’t ask me.